Third Wave in Prospect

We have an acknowledgement from the Prime Minister that “Third wave will ‘wash up on our shores’ “.

This means more and longer restrictions, and also on holidays, as one of his ministers, Lord Bethell, also warned the UK might put “all our European neighbours” on the red list of countries, where arrivals are either banned or put in quarantine hotels.

That would take the pleasure out of any holidays They may have been softening us up with statement over the past couple of days

Expert analysis of this looks at the timing and impact of the announcement.

Chris Mason BBC Political Correspondent, under the headline “It’s striking PM chose to acknowledge potential impact of Europe wave”, says that two things matter right now: the international pathways essential to the production of vaccines, and the international pathways that allow waves of the virus to spread. In Europe countries are facing a double whammy of a much lower vaccination rate a failure to vaccinate at anywhere near the rate the UK has, and another wave of infections, prompting a tightening of restrictions.

The lesson of this pandemic so far has been what happens nearby can happen here, and quickly – a prospect the prime minister appears alive to.

Earlier Boris Johnson said: “On the continent right now you can see sadly there is a third wave under way and people in this country should be under no illusions… that previous experience has taught us that when a wave hits our friends it washes up on our shores as well and I expect we will feel those effects in due course. That’s why we were are getting on with our vaccination programme as fast as we can.“

Something that is raised by Chris Mason: “With more than half of adults in the UK having received a jab, the consequences of another wave are not likely to be what they could have been – but it’s striking the prime minister chose to publicly acknowledge there will be an impact here.”

My observation – why – what’s changed in the thinking?

The cases data today shows the third day of sight rise of the seven day moving average, which may be one of the reasons that these actions are being taken.

Five and a half hours of online with students today, which in itself was a little tiring. Don’t get me wrong, the students are great, it’s just complex work, and doing it in Teams can be challenging. However it’s done.

Thirty six years ago today we were married, this selfie at Long Rock 2017.

Music:

Sandy and I got to Ely just once, after we’d given a lecture in Cambridge one afternoon. We always promised ourselves we’d go back, but it wasn’t to be. Last year I’d arranged to meet two friends in Ely Cathedral, but that being just before National Lockdown, wasn’t to be either. Ely has an extraordinary acoustic, and this is a recording by Trinity College Choir.

Ēriks Ešenvalds (1977-),Trinity Te Deum, Trinity College Choir.

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