Uncertanties

The Office of National Statistics (ONS) suggests that although cases continue to fall, in some areas the rate of decline has started to slow – and in a few, cases may even be increasing slightly. 

And also, it is too soon to predict, from these statistics, what effect the reopening of schools might have on infection rates going forward, say experts.

So what do we have? A number of data sources, ONS and the official government 28-day figures primarily, and an upward trend for the past couple of days. We have been seeing a slowing in the decreases of new infections, and now this trend. Whether it continues in the worrying directions or if this is another blip, the reduction on the rate of decline is still of concern.

The top chart shows the regional changed for the last week with increases on the right of the division line, and the lower, the reversing decline in the seven-day average of new cases in the past couple of days. These combine information from the two main sources.

Today, meetings and teaching, and unfortunately no new writing as admin and responding to students’ work took precedence.

Tomorrow and Sunday must be getting on with the fitting of shelving. See how that goes.

Music:

From a recording session:

Johann Sebastian Bach (1685-1750), Nach dir, Herr, verlanget mich, BWV 150, Academy of Ancient Music, VOCES8, Barnaby Smith

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